The legacy of General de Gaulle loomed over the Munich Security Conference held in February. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz advocated for a Europe capable of playing a central role on the international stage, emphasising the need to combine military, technological, and economic strength, while reforming the European Union (EU) to make it less bureaucratic and more efficient. The Conference highlighted the current geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation, which is weakening global supply chains. Christine Lagarde encouraged Europe to strengthen its strategic autonomy¹. For investors, managing geopolitical risk remains essential; however, the absence of major escalation and the willingness to maintain dialogue provide a constructive environment for seeking opportunities.

ENTERING THE 5TH YEAR OF WAR IN UKRAINE

As Friedrich Merz noted, Russia represents just one-tenth of Europe’s GDP, yet “Europe is not ten times more powerful than Russia today. Our military, political, economic, and technological potential is immense, but we are far from having fully leveraged it.” Russia has reorganised itself around a war economy, placing the country in a complex “survival mode” that is depleting its resources and gradually eroding its future potential, without causing a collapse. Defence accounts for 8% of GDP, the deficit is widening, and revenues from oil and gas have fallen by 50% in a year. Today, an end to the war would likely trigger a major economic and budgetary crisis in Russia.

TOWARDS A LIKELY NEW MONETARY SYSTEM

Against this backdrop of geopolitical complexity and a major “industrial revolution” driven by artificial intelligence (AI), currency volatility—particularly regarding the US dollar—has increased the appeal of precious metals as hedging instruments. Furthermore, the status of the US dollar, as a safe haven, is now also being challenged as a transaction and reserve currency. Stablecoins, owing to their payment simplicity and disintermediation potential, are gaining prominence. The Tether platform, for example, is valued at several hundred billion dollars and invests its reserves in US Treasury Bills, making it the seventh largest holder of US debt, ahead of Germany. At the same time, alternatives from emerging markets are being developed, such as “BRICS Pay²” backed by blockchain technology—which could compete with stablecoins. These developments herald a major financial revolution, redefining international payment systems and reserve instruments.

ASIA: GLOBALISATION IS NOT DISAPPEARING, IT IS SHIFTING

The future of the global transaction currency could rest on a disintermediated system such as “BRICS Pay”, reflecting the ongoing evolution of globalisation and the search for alternatives to traditional financial infrastructures—while still preserving local currencies. Globalisation is shifting towards Asia, where countries such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are demonstrating robust growth. With diversified supply chains and a central role in the AI value chain, Asia is becoming a key hub for foreign investment.

STRATEGIC MINERALS AND INDUSTRIAL METALS: THE NEW GOLD RUSH

Copper, aluminium, nickel, rare earths, and lithium are essential for the energy transition, technological innovation, and defence. However, their global supply presents significant challenges, notably a high dependence on China and risks of shortages. Demand, particularly for copper, is expected to rise sharply by 2050, while the discovery of new deposits is slowing and extraction bottlenecks are intensifying. This environment, and the shifting global balance of power, calls for vigilance as well as discernment. The lessons of Munich 2026 remind us that geopolitical uncertainty has become a structural feature. Nevertheless, pockets of opportunity remain, especially in Asia, where ongoing reforms could prove fruitful. More than ever, active and selective portfolio management is essential to navigate the months ahead successfully.

¹ The strategy focuses on reshoring key production to the Euro Area to reduce external dependency and diversifying partnerships to protect the European economy from single-source disruptions.

² A decentralised blockchain payment system for BRICS aims to enable secure, direct cross-border transactions in local currencies, reducing reliance on the US dollar and SWIFT.

Monthly House View - March 2026 - Download here [ENG]

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_{Monthly House View, 20.02.2026. - Excerpt of the Editorial}