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In April 2026, the four Artemis II astronauts travelled over 400 000 km from Earth, surpassing the distance record set by Apollo 13 in 1970, and marking the first human journey around the Moon since 1972. These “ambassadors from humanity to the stars” offered us a new perspective with their “Earthset” photograph—an echo of the iconic “Earthrise” captured 57 years ago. Observing Earth from such a distance, the astronauts reminded us how small and vulnerable our world truly is, especially at a time when so much depends on the 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz—a narrow corridor that has become the most critical “choke point” for global trade and energy flows for a significant part of civilisation.

A GLOBAL ENERGY THREAT

As highlighted by the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, the current conflict involving Iran has triggered the “greatest global energy security threat in history.” While the outcome of this crisis remains uncertain, one lesson is clear: no government will willingly return to a position of strategic dependence on such a narrow strait controlled by an unpredictable neighbour.

To mitigate this vulnerability, significant investment in new infrastructure is inevitable. The Saudi East-West Pipeline, for example, is able to transport up to 7 million barrels per day—less than half the 15 million barrels that typically transit the Strait of Hormuz. This is not sufficient. The world now needs to reroute a large part of oil, natural gas, fertiliser, sulphur, and helium exports—critical for many countries—which currently hinge on this narrow corridor, an anomaly that must be addressed.

This shortfall underscores the urgent need for alternative routes, expanded pipeline capacity, and new ports to ensure global energy security. Such projects will require years to complete, but the imperative to de-risk global supply chains is now undeniable.

FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENCE

The ramifications for Europe are immediate. Price stability has become the foremost concern as energy-driven inflation surges. We now forecast headline inflation to reach 3% in 2026, with peaks above 4% during the year, posing a significant challenge to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) price stability mandate. As President Lagarde recently observed, “we find ourselves yet again in a different world, whose contours are not yet clear.”

Europe’s energy dependence is its greatest vulnerability—a reality underscored by the Ukraine crisis and now by renewed instability in the Middle East. The impact extends beyond inflation, affecting growth, competitiveness, and public finances.

While the initial phase of Europe’s energy transition was driven by environmental commitments under the Paris Agreement, the rationale is evolving. The direct fiscal and economic costs of repeated energy shocks now demand urgent action. According to the European Commission, investments of approximately 660 billion euros per year between 2026 and 2030 are required to meet sustainable energy targets. Though the scale appears daunting, the alternative—Europe’s annual 400 billion euros spend on fossil fuel imports—highlights the long-term benefits of accelerating the transition.

Homegrown renewable energy, once infrastructure is in place, will cost a fraction of current imports. The objective will therefore shift to restoring public finances and achieving greater price stability.

Strategic autonomy—once a broad and often diffuse concept—is increasingly centred on national security and technological sovereignty. It now focuses on defence, advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), critical infrastructure, and the securing of access to key natural resources, particularly for countries most exposed to supply vulnerabilities. This evolution is aligning economic policy with geopolitical priorities across Europe, the Middle East, China, and the United States, creating a clearer and more durable investment theme.

May you find this month’s publication both pleasant and insightful. I also extend my sincere wishes for the safety of our colleagues and clients in the Middle East and hope for a swift and peaceful resolution.

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_{Monthly House View, 17.04.2026. - Excerpt of the Editorial}